Our morning bout of fog is starting to melt away as partly cloudy skies set in across the region. Our attention shifts to a batch of thunderstorms fast approaching from the north. These storms are expected to enter Alabama later this afternoon into the evening, sparking a window of opportunity for isolated severe weather...
TODAY: Outside of a few south Alabama downpours, radar is dry this morning. A loosely organized line of showers and thunderstorms extends from Arkansas to Kentucky. This line is quickly spilling southward into a cool pool of air perpetually kicks off fresh development ahead of the storms. These setups are notoriously difficult to forecast but have the potential to create issues when high heat and humidity get involved. While the line this morning isn't overly impressive, it's moving into an air mass currently undergoing heating. By the time it get here later this afternoon, we'll have many areas around 90 degrees. Plenty of fuel.
While global models aren't "smart" enough to pick up on these smaller scale features, higher res models can. And they are. This energy is expected to enter the area after 5 pm and rapidly dive southward through 10 p.m. If this all happens according to plan, that window could feature storms with damaging winds and frequent lightning. Instability values are seasonably high and will provide an air mass that should (in part) support strong wind potential at the surface. I stress, however, that these complexes tend to do their own thing and often deviate from what models think should happen. That could lead to adjustments in the timing & strength. We've seen times where these lines suddenly fizzle out without issue. We've seen other times where widespread wind damage can occur.
Because these storms will be driven in part by the high instability, intensity should start to diminish after 8-9pm with the loss of daytime heating. That means the overall threat is higher across central Alabama and lower across south Alabama.
LOOKING AHEAD: Daily highs around 90 with scattered afternoon thunderstorms are here for awhile. That's how we see our weekend and how we see early next week.
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