MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - We're quiet and mild across Alabama now, but numerous showers and some isolated storms are going to be in our forecast later on tonight. In the meantime, high temperatures surge into the upper 70s to near 80° in time for our Friday afternoon; while we can't rule out a random shower, much of the area will end up dry today.
Our forecast becomes immensely more complicated overnight as a line of showers and thunderstorms approaches from the west...
Some computer models are having a difficult time trying to grasp how this line evolves, or if storms are able to hold together at all. Should the line hold together as it slides closer to our area, isolated areas of damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado are both a possibility from 11 p.m. tonight in our west counties through roughly 9 a.m. tomorrow in east Alabama.
But recent models have suggested this initial line weakens, possible even fizzling out entirely as it moves into the area. Much of this trend has to do with the limited instability that would induce a weakening of the line. Unless models start trending more aggressively with unstable air, we may have to slide the low-end severe risk southward. More to come as new data arrives later this morning.
This cold front finally clears the area by early Saturday afternoon, and temperatures will be falling behind the front. Expect it to be a cooler and potential damp day with some isolated rain/drizzle on the backside of this system; temperatures will be linger in the 50s/low 60s throughout much of the day. Skies will clear fairly quickly Saturday night and again much colder air will make it into the region. Lows by Sunday morning will 30s for much of central/south Alabama. Freeze Watch are in effect for far northern portions of our state, but no watches have been issued for our area.
High pressure will build through Sunday and then the next system will slide toward the area for the Monday time frame. More showers and storms are possible, so we'll fine tune the details as we get through the weekend. Some good news is most models are very consistent when it comes to after Monday - we look to clear out the area by Tuesday and high pressure will build back into the area and remain through Friday, with temperatures moderating warmer as we go.