First Alert: Weekend system trends slower, weaker

Rain risk low on Saturday, storms likely by Sunday

First Alert: A look at this weekend's storm

MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - The next 48 hours will feature warmer, cloudy and *mainly* dry weather - with a few exceptions.

A few isolated showers are possible Friday, mainly north of us. We’ll include a 20% chance of a passing shower in the forecast, but understand that most places stay dry.

The weekend system has trended slower, which also suggests a lower tornado risk. The latest data supports the idea of a mainly dry Saturday, with only a small chance of a strong storm in our far western counties. For many, it’s a warm, breezy Saturday with no rain.

Severe weather is likely northwest of us on Saturday.
Severe weather is likely northwest of us on Saturday. (Source: WSFA 12 News)

To our west, a significant severe weather episode is possible across parts of northeast Texas, northern Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, northwest Alabama and western Tennessee.

These storms will likely push into north Alabama Saturday night, and our area will be on the southern fringe of the storms. So, we’ll mention a low but not zero risk of severe weather Saturday night, mainly from Montgomery northward.

Saturday night's storm risk is mainly over north Alabama.
Saturday night's storm risk is mainly over north Alabama. (Source: WSFA 12 News)

Sunday, the cold front slowly drifts into south Alabama. With plenty of warm, moist air, scattered showers and thunderstorms are a good bet. But, by Sunday, much of the wind shear necessary to create tornadoes will have lifted out to the northeast. So, the primary concern with any intense storm cores would be damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail.

A low-end risk of wind/hail could develop over south Alabama Sunday.
A low-end risk of wind/hail could develop over south Alabama Sunday. (Source: WSFA 12 News)

So, we can’t give you an all clear for the weekend, but today’s trends have been good for us. We’ll hope that continues.

7 Day
7 Day

Copyright 2019 WSFA 12 News. All rights reserved.