MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Here is a sentence we don’t type much as meteorologists in Alabama during the month of July: “A cold front is on the way!” While we see frontal boundaries all the time, it’s not very often we see one this time of year that sweeps through the area and drops both temperatures and humidity.
How rare of a treat is this upcoming forecast? Lets find out!
To answer the above question, we looked at data over the past 10 years. What we found probably won’t surprise you much...
First, we started by separating each individual day into categories based off of recorded high temperatures; we did this for each afternoon in the month of July from 2018 all the way back to 2009.
Some years were hotter than others, but as expected the majority of those days were at or above average - either in the 90s (248 days) or 100s (11 days).
With 80s in the forecast over the next couple of days, we wanted to know how common - or uncommon - below average temperatures are during the month of July. After sorting through the hottest days, what was left over was 51 days, with only three of those afternoon landing in the 70s.
Now we focused more on the 80s, since that’s what our upcoming forecast calls for: out of the 48 days where we climbed into the 80s, 35 of those also featured rain.
Our conclusion? Temperatures in the 80s don’t happen often this time of year, but when they do there is a good chance it’s because of wet weather in the forecast; roughly 73 percent of the days that observed highs in the 80s also featured measurable rainfall, so that means there were less than two weeks (only 13 days) over the past 10 years where we climbed into the 80s without showers.
So there you have it. While temperatures in the 80s this time of year can happen, it is unusual to see highs below 90° without rain in the forecast.
Enjoy this - it doesn’t happen much in Alabama!