Confidence growing in heavy rain risk over Easter weekend

Threat for 2-4″ of rainfall for most of the region

Confidence growing in heavy rain risk over Easter weekend
Heavy rain is likely for Easter weekend (Source: WSFA 12 News)

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Get the umbrellas, rain boots and boats ready, folks! O.K., you probably won’t need the boat, but a lot of rain is on the way for central and southern Alabama over the upcoming Easter weekend.

Latest indications are that a potent storm system will push out of the Desert Southwest late this week and impact the Deep South and Southeast come Saturday and Easter Sunday. It’s this storm system that will likely bring plenty of rain and thunderstorm activity to the region.

Heavy rain is likely for Easter weekend
Heavy rain is likely for Easter weekend (Source: WSFA 12 News)

The latest 7-day precipitation outlook from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) places all of central and southern Alabama in the zone of 2-4″ of rainfall.

In all likelihood, 75% of that comes Saturday evening thru Sunday night with our strong area of low pressure and associated cold front pulling in plentiful Gulf of Mexico moisture.

Rain totals courtesy of the GFS model over the next week
Rain totals courtesy of the GFS model over the next week (Source: WSFA 12 News)

When making that rainfall forecast, the Weather Prediction Center can look at an array of forecast models and tools. Two of the most widely used models are the GFS and EURO. The image above represents GFS’ take on total rainfall through Easter weekend.

Notice everyone would get at least 2″ of rain -- with many seeing 3-5″ of rainfall -- if that model were to pan out.

Rainfall totals courtesy of the EURO model over the next week
Rainfall totals courtesy of the EURO model over the next week (Source: WSFA 12 News)

The EURO model is less bullish on the amount of rain we will see, but still suggests a healthy 1-3″ across the area.

Taking these two models, the outlook from the WPC and other data we have at our disposal into consideration, it’s certainly looking likely that we will be contending with a heavy rain event Saturday evening through Easter Sunday. The threat for areal flooding and potentially flash flooding would exist if this outcome plays out. Stay tuned for further updates through the week!

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