Economist: Slow recovery expected as the country desires ‘new economy’

Expert discusses time frame for Alabama economic recovery

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - One economist said the United States will see a slow economic recovery over the next several months. This as Dr. Keivan Deravi, the chief economist of Economics Research Services, said the country will move into a “new economy” where people look to more online services.

“Meaning we may see a large number of retailers going out simply because a lot of us had discovered by default online shopping and the delivery,” he said.

Deravi said it may take until 2021 to 2022 before the economy is restored.

“Slow recovery mainly will be due to the fact that businesses cannot reopen 100 percent immediately," he said.

Alabama has seen unemployment claims soaring to about 400,000 the last several months. Deravi said high unemployment will not go away anytime soon.

“Until public and businesses aren’t sure that there is a vaccine or there is a testing or there is some sort of reassurance that public at large will not be in danger of catching the virus,” he said.

Alabama had low unemployment earlier this year which hung around 3 percent. That is in stark contrast to Deravi’s data which says it’s a possibility that Alabama’s unemployment could be at 15 percent to 20 percent for May.

Deravi said his biggest concern is for the supply chain. For example, he said an automobile manufacturing company may be ready, but the supply chain may not.

“And remember that a lot of the supply chains had already been located in China and East Asia," he said. "We have gone so much into the global economy, that undoing of the global economy in the face of this virus is basically virtually impossible in the short run.”

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