MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - First things first, two calm days are ahead for Alabama. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, afternoon temperatures in the 80s and only a small chance of a passing shower. Most will stay dry.
Then, Hurricane Delta arrives.
The hurricane is rapidly intensifying and will soon be a “major” hurricane. The track forecast is fairly confident; we are projecting landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday. The devil’s in the details, though. Precisely where the hurricane tracks will determine our local impacts. For now, we’ll predict multiple waves of rain late Thursday through Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 3-6″ are possible - but since the ground is dry and that rain will fall over a 48 hour period, I don’t expect big flooding problems in Alabama.
Based on current expectations, we believe that damaging wind and power outages are highly unlikely in our part of Alabama. And, with relatively cool, stable air in place ahead of the hurricane, spin-up tornadoes are also unlikely.
However, the “cone of uncertainty” encompasses a large swath from the Texas-Louisiana state line to Panama City, Florida. It’s not the highest amount of uncertainty we’ve seen in terms of tracking a landfalling tropical system, but we do have a fair amount of spread in our models.
And any change in the track, especially an eastward shift, would dramatically change what we expect here in central and south Alabama.