MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Here we are just two days before Thanksgiving and less than a week from the start of December... that means we should expect cool afternoons, crisp nights and a lack of humidity, right? For today, that is absolutely true. We have been enjoying a mostly sunny sky, a light breeze and temperatures on either side of 70° at our warmest point. It really doesn’t get much better this time of year!
By Wednesday we will be tracking a cold front pushing into Alabama from the northwest. Ahead of this front it will turn increasingly cloudy, humid and breezy; by the mid-afternoon hours the boundary will be close enough to fuel some scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.
And boy do we need the rain here. We’ve recorded a whopping 0.05″ of rain since the beginning of November, which is more than 3″ below normal!
That rain chance (40-50%) will continue into Wednesday evening and night as the front moves across Alabama. Not everyone will see rain with this front, but the chances are certainly there for scattered activity.
The all-important forecast for Thanksgiving continues to look a bit murky as models still disagree on what happens with Wednesday night’s cold front.
Will the front clear the state and allow cooler, less humid air to settle in to end the week? Or will the front essentially stall out and keep at least some low-end rain chances in the forecast for Thursday and Friday? That’s the golden question that still doesn’t have a perfect answer at this point...
However, based on the latest information we’ve maintained the 30% chance of at least a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on Thanksgiving.
The chance for scattered rain and a few storms has been upped to 50% for Black Friday. By the time the evening rolls around, rain and isolated storm chance rises to 70% as a second storm systems begins to affect the state.
That system will continue to impact the region Saturday and Sunday, but exact details are not set in stone yet. For now, we’ve kept a 50% chance of scattered rain and perhaps a thunderstorm for Saturday, especially in southern Alabama. For Sunday, models disagree on the eventual evolution of an area of low pressure.
When the rain chances are over with by Monday morning, most of the region will have picked up a hefty 2-4″ of much-needed rainfall. However, with it coming in several different “waves,” any flooding concerns are very minor at worst.
Temperatures will generally be in the 70s during the afternoon and 50s/60s at night through Sunday. However, come this weekend it’s possible we stay in the 60s for highs. The lack of crisp nights will be courtesy of higher humidity levels preventing temperatures from falling much at night.