MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - As bitterly cold air overspreads much of the northern half of the United States, Alabama is doing just fine. We are in the midst of a stretch of warm weather; that stretch continues on Tuesday. Despite some morning rain in south Alabama, temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The warmth will last through Thursday, but then...well, things change.
Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will roll through south Alabama after midnight. Some will hear a few claps of thunder, but we do not anticipate any problems with damaging wind, hail or tornadoes. Just some rain and thunder, mainly concentrated south of Montgomery.
Much of Tuesday will be dry; the morning rain in the southern counties will push into Georgia, and the sun will probably come out in many places. Temperatures will warm into the 67-73° range.
A few isolated showers or sprinkles are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday, but it won’t rain on everyone. And, where it does rain, it won’t last long or rain very much.
A more widespread soaking is likely late Thursday into Thursday night, as a front barrels through the state. Wind fields are weak, but there could be enough instability for a few strong thunderstorms. At this point, we don’t think there’s much of a severe weather risk, but we’ll watch.
A few showers linger, and we turn sharply colder on Friday. Highs will struggle into the mid 50s, and the wind will make it feel colder.
And this is where the forecast becomes very questionable. There is massive computer model disagreement in just how far south the Arctic front will move. And, that’s a big deal. North of this front, temperatures will plunge to the coldest values of the entire Winter. South of this front, temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. A matter of 50-100 miles will make THAT big of a difference.
For now, we’ll take a “middle of the road” approach and call for cold air Saturday, Sunday and Monday with a chance of some rain. But, understand that there’s still a huge range of potential outcomes beyond five days. Much can and probably will change. If you have weekend plans or interests early next week, you must check back for new and better information throughout the week.