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Feeling much better, but we’re watching the tropics

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will influence our weather this weekend
Published: Jun. 16, 2021 at 5:06 AM CDT|Updated: Jun. 16, 2021 at 5:27 PM CDT
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Enjoy the next couple of days because the more comfortable air that moved in late yesterday won’t stick around for long! A lovely, but somewhat rare, summertime combination of low humidity, ample sunshine and completely dry weather are sticking around for a few days.

The mornings will be especially pleasant with temperatures in the lower and middle 60s both Thursday morning and Friday morning. Considering our average low this time of year is nearing 70, we will certainly take that!

Highs will be in the low 90s tomorrow, then the middle 90s Friday. By Friday, some humidity could be returning, but we’ll still stay mostly dry.

Rain chances will return Friday evening courtesy of...

7 Day
7 Day(WSFA 12 News)

...the tropics! The system is currently located in the Bay of Campeche, but will move northward toward the northwester Gulf Coast by the weekend.

Tropics
Tropics(WSFA 12 News)

As it moves northward, it has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Regardless of whether or not it officially develops, a surge of deep tropical moisture will push right into the Deep South.

That will lead to a return of very muggy conditions and increased rain chances. The highest chance and coverage of rain and scattered thunderstorms will likely come over the weekend into early next week.

Humidity levels rise big-time heading into the weekend.
Humidity levels rise big-time heading into the weekend.(WSFA 12 News)

There is still a fair amount of disagreement between models with this system. Exactly where the most or heaviest rain will fall is uncertain, but we’ll get a better grip on it as the system continues to organize in the Gulf. As of right now, most model guidance suggests a solid 2-6″ (or more) of rain between Friday night and Tuesday.

Rain totals over the next week will reach 3-6"+ across the southern half of Alabama. Exact...
Rain totals over the next week will reach 3-6"+ across the southern half of Alabama. Exact totals, placement of the highest rainfall and any flooding concerns are still not set in stone.(WSFA 12 News)

It will also be breezy during this time. We can’t rule out the possibility of a spin-up tornado, but the risk looks extremely low right now. Again, we’ll be able to fine-tune the risks and forecast as this system continues to organize, so check back for updates!

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