New Gray TV/AL Daily News Poll finds Trump endorsement not as powerful in Ala. primaries as it once was

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) - How powerful is former President Trump in Alabama? It’s a question lots of campaigns are trying to answer with his endorsed Senate candidate Mo Brooks now stuck in 3rd in our exclusive new Gray TV/Alabama Daily News polling. Brooks could be looking at the very real possibility of missing a runoff.

We asked 600 likely Republican primary voters about their opinion of the 45th president, and almost 80% see him favorably, 17% unfavorably.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable - 79.8%

Unfavorable - 16.9%

No Opinion - 3.1%

The numbers aren’t as strong when we asked the same voters whether a Trump endorsement would make them more or less likely to support a candidate.

Would Donald Trump’s endorsement of a candidate in Alabama make you more or less likely to support that candidate?

Now

More Likely - 39.1%

Aug. ‘21

More Likely - 57.7%

Now

Makes No Difference - 42.4%

Aug. ‘21

Makes No Difference - 30%

Now

Less Likely - 13.8%

Aug. ‘21

Less Likely - 9.6%

39% said it would make them more likely, but that’s down from 58% who said the same back in August. The number of GOP voters who said it makes no difference is 42% now, up from 30% last August.

“That’s a huge drop,” says Alabama Daily News publisher Todd Stacy. “You gotta wonder what really happened in the mind of the electorate. I will say this--I think it’s pretty evident in the mind of the electorate, so much of the Republican Party loves Trump. That doesn’t always transmit over to his endorsed candidates. If it was just the Trump endorsement that mattered in this race, then Mo Brooks would be running away with it, right? So as much as voters, Republican voters, love Trump, they’re not necessarily following his lead to the letter on these down-ballot races.”

Another surprise in these results may be how these voters feel about expanding gambling in Alabama. Our poll found 44% of Republican voters would rather see the state legalize a lottery, sports betting and casinos, similar to a plan under consideration now in the state senate. 21% of these voters favored a lottery only, similar to a plan the under consideration in the house, while 26% oppose any expansion of gambling.

What best describes your position on gambling?

Now

The state should legalize and tax a lottery, sports betting, and casinos - 43.5%

Aug. ‘21

The state should legalize and tax a lottery, sports betting, and casinos - 44.2%

Now

The state should legalize and tax only a lottery - 20.5%

Aug. ‘21

The state should legalize and tax only a lottery - 22.4%

Now

I’m against expanding any form of gambling - 25.7%

Aug. ‘21

I’m against expanding any form of gambling - 23.5%

“What this shows me is it’s stable,” Stacy says. “These numbers haven’t really shifted since August, and it also shows me that the whole lottery-only thing doesn’t have a lot of momentum. There’s a lot of lawmakers who say ‘oh voters want a lottery-only.” These numbers show me I don’t know, that’s not necessarily the case.”

Gas prices are hitting all of us in our wallets, but do GOP primary voters wish the state legislature in 2019 wouldn’t have passed a gas tax increase to fund road and bridge improvements? No, but it’s close. 43% of the voters we surveyed said it was necessary to improve Alabama’s infrastructure, while 41% said the gas tax was high enough and shouldn’t have been raised any further.

On the question of whether to delay implementing the part of the Alabama Literacy Act that would force schools to hold back 3rd graders who can’t read at grade level by the end of that school year, a majority of Alabama Republican voters oppose a delay, by a 57% (oppose delay) to 26% (support it) margin.

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