Colorado State University researchers predict yet another active hurricane season
They say there’s a 46% chance of at least 1 major hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - It may be hard to believe, but we are edging closer and closer to hurricane season in the Atlantic once again. One sign of that is Colorado State University’s first forecast for this year’s hurricane season being released.
That happened on April 7th, and it calls for yet another active season with an above average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
The outlook calls for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. For the sake of comparison, an average hurricane season in the Atlantic features 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
It’s important to note that these numbers have nothing to do with the number of landfalling storms. It’s impossible to predict how many storms will make landfall, where they will make landfall and how strong they will be this far ahead of time.
However, CSU researchers do provide statistical probabilities of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline throughout hurricane season.
Those numbers are also above normal. According to the forecast, there is a 47% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast. The chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast is nearly identical at 46%.
The overall risk of a major hurricane landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline is 71%. A major hurricane is one that reaches at least category 3 strength, which means a maximum wind speed of at least 111 mph.
One other interesting probability provided in the outlook is the chance of at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean. This is an area that Gulf Coast residents pay extra close attention to as storms oftentimes move from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.
The chance of that happening is at 60%.
Another year means another list of storm names. If you’re curious about whether or not your name is on this year’s list, check it out just above!
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