Here comes the peak of hurricane season

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - It is probably hard to believe, but August is about to begin. Where in the world did time go?! With that in mind, it’s important to know hurricane season is about to enter its most active stretch.

August, September and October are the most active months by far in a typical Atlantic hurricane season. You are probably well aware of that after the last few years here along the Gulf Coast.

When looking at averages, the meat of the hurricane season usually runs from mid-August thru mid-October -- a roughly 60-day stretch. Tropical systems occur outside of that window every year, but that’s when most activity happens.

Looking at where storms usually form and move in August, the main areas to watch are the central Atlantic into the northern Caribbean, the western Atlantic off the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.

The two really “hot” spots for development are the far eastern Caribbean/south-central Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast. Storms can and do form in the Gulf of Mexico in August, but the rate at which that happens ramps up big-time in September and October.

The map above highlights areas where a named storm is most likely to form. The map below highlights areas where hurricanes are most likely to form in August.

It’s roughly the same areas, but most August hurricane activity is confined to the south-central Atlantic and western Atlantic. Hurricanes do happen closer to home in the Gulf in August, but are less common than in the Atlantic.

That doesn’t mean 2022 will pan out that way. There are years where things don’t play out “normally.” It’s a realistic possibility that August features nothing in the Gulf of Mexico, but September brings multiple storms. It’s also feasible that August brings a few storms and September is less active. It just depends on the year and how things evolve.

Based on the latest long-range models and what we know about La Nina, things should start to pick up quite a bit by the midway point of August. I would expect things to certainly be more active than what July has brought. Although we are running just ahead of schedule with three named storms to date.

The next names on the list are Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, and Hermine.

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