Least active start to the Atlantic hurricane season in 30 years
There have only been 3 named storms through August 26th
MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - Another day without a named storm in the Atlantic. Nothing new, right? More than 50 days have passed since the last named storm existed. It’s one of the longest inactive streaks in modern history.
2022 is now officially the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season in three decades. If things continue to stay quiet it’s possible 2022 goes down as a record-holder.
One way to measure how active -- or inactive -- a hurricane season has been is by looking at something called accumulated cyclone energy. For the sake of saving time, I’ll refer to accumulated cyclone energy as ACE.
ACE takes into consideration the number of storms that form, how strong they get and how long they last. All of those components added together results in a number referred to as accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
A typical hurricane season features about 122 ACE. That number comes from averaging the amount of ACE that occurred each year from 1991 to 2020. By August 26th the average Atlantic hurricane season generates 26.7 ACE. This year through August 26th? A measly 2.9 ACE.
Unless September, October and November produce very, very active conditions in the tropics it will be extremely difficult to reach 122 ACE. As we always say, a quiet start to the hurricane season does not necessarily translate to a quiet ending. It’s possible the next three months are hyperactive. It’s possible they wind up being rather average. It’s also possible that things stay more quiet than normal.
Depending on how things pan out this could be one the quietest hurricane seasons in modern history. Over the last 15 years only 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014, and 2015 wound up quieter than normal.
I talked in depth with Eric Webb, a meteorologist who specializes in climate, winter and tropical weather, about this year’s season. Both what has happened so far and what could happen over the next few months. He gave me some deep insight into the year so far and had plenty of very important and beneficial things to say, including a phrase that couldn’t be more true: “it only takes one.” Just because the Gulf Coast has dodged the tropical activity so far doesn’t mean it will stay that way.
One stronger storm making landfall along the U.S. coast makes it a terrible year for that community and area. When asked about the chance of a system impacting somebody along the Gulf Coast over the next few months, Webb told me that he would say, “probably a medium to high chance...40% to around 65%.” He did go on to tell me it’s very difficult to get into the details and provide numerical landfall probabilities.
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