Eyes on Caribbean and eventually the Gulf of Mexico

A tropical wave entering the Caribbean will likely develop later this week
Published: Sep. 20, 2022 at 11:19 AM CDT
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - It has been a quiet year in the Gulf of Mexico so far. There haven’t been any tropical concerns yet, and there won’t be any through the weekend. That will, unfortunately, change as the month comes to a close next week.

A tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean is likely to develop into a named storm as it moves westward just north of South America. Eventually the system will turn northward, but the exact point at which that happens is unknown at this point. And it’s this northward turn that will dictate what impacts, if any, will be seen in the U.S.

The eventual strength of the system is unknown as well since it has yet to develop a closed circulation. Once that circulation forms, the models will get a better idea of where it will go and how strong it could get.

A system entering the Caribbean has a solid shot at eventually heading into the Gulf of Mexico...
A system entering the Caribbean has a solid shot at eventually heading into the Gulf of Mexico later next week.(WSFA 12 News)

For now I can say with a high degree of certainty that a named storm will form in the Caribbean Sea this week. I can also say there is a realistic shot at this system eventually moving into some part of the Gulf of Mexico. This means nobody is in the clear; everyone from Texas to Florida needs to monitor the progress of this wave.

For this reason it really isn’t a bad idea to at least begin thinking about what you will do if the storm ends up affecting you. There’s no need to worry at this point, but starting the thinking phase wouldn’t hurt.

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