No big shots of cold loom through early December

We should avoid frosts and freezes for at least the next 2 weeks
Published: Nov. 21, 2022 at 11:26 AM CST|Updated: Nov. 21, 2022 at 2:23 PM CST
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - What started out as a very warm month is now officially below normal in Montgomery. Not by much, but through November 20th we are 0.7° below normal. That’s due to a remarkably chilly stretch of weather that began back on the12th.

Every single day since then has been below to way below normal. We’re talking many days being between 10° and 20° below normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s. Cold may be an understatement if I’m being honest.

November will likely finish pretty close to normal with plenty of highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s through the end of the month. That’s near par for this time of year in Montgomery.

There really aren’t any signs of big-time cold through at least the first several days of December. December 5th is the next reasonable time that a shot of colder air could pour into Alabama. Most long-range models suggest that is a possibility. Not set in stone, but a good possibility.

The end of November and beginning of December look warmer.
The end of November and beginning of December look warmer.(WSFA 12 News)

No frosts or freezes would occur until that time. That is a solid two weeks without any temperatures in the 20s or 30s. The colder locations in Central Alabama could dip into the upper 30s a time or two at the worst.

Beyond the first handful of days in December it becomes more difficult to predict. That’s simply because we’re getting farther and farther into the future. It’s hard enough to predict the next 7 days accurately. When you go out a month or longer it becomes very difficult.

There are some things that can be looked at to give us a general “idea” as to what may transpire 1-3 months into the future. But really nothing more than a general idea. That’s where the Climate Prediction Center comes in! The CPC issues temperature and precipitation outlooks that go well into the future. And it just so happens that their new December temperature outlook is in!

December is projected to be above normal overall.
December is projected to be above normal overall.(WSFA 12 News)

That outlook calls for above normal temperatures across all of Alabama. Officially it’s the “leaning above normal” category that Alabama finds itself in. That’s what that very light orange shade represents on the map above. The darker the orange, the higher the confidence in above normal temperatures.

As you can see, the confidence level isn’t that high. But all things, for the most part, point towards a month that will finish near or above normal. That likely includes a couple shots of colder air, but nothing too extensive or long-lasting!

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