Significant severe weather threat across the South

A regional severe weather and tornado outbreak are possible
Published: Nov. 28, 2022 at 11:10 AM CST
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - A significant and expansive severe weather event is set to impact parts of the South as November comes to a close. Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be active for multiple states, including Alabama.

The most active part of that period will likely be late Tuesday afternoon through sunrise Wednesday. That’s when parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana will see thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and hail.

There is a substantial risk of severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of the...
There is a substantial risk of severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of the South.(WSFA 12 News)

Tornadoes aren’t just possible with this system, they are likely. There is also an elevated risk for long-track and strong tornadoes given the parameters that will be in place. When we say strong tornadoes, that refers to those rated EF2 or higher. This event has the chance to produce a tornado outbreak should things come together right.

Right now the ingredients needed to support severe weather look to be plentiful for much of the zone being highlighted. The one limiting factor may be the amount of instability, or energy, available for storms to work with the farther north you go. But there are far more things that support severe weather than there are things that discourage severe weather with this particular system.

The ingredients needed to support severe weather will be present to an extremely high degree...
The ingredients needed to support severe weather will be present to an extremely high degree across parts of the Southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night.(WSFA 12 News)

That is true for parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Once you get into Central Alabama the ingredients that support severe weather become a little less substantial. That means the risk is a bit lower here than it is just to our north and west.

Right now the risk is either “low” (level 2-of-4) or “very low” (level 1-of-4) locally. West Alabama has the higher risk, and that should stay true based on what models are suggesting this morning.

The timeline for us in Central Alabama is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There could be a few strong storms between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. Tuesday, but after that time is when damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are most likely.

A risk of strong to severe storms exists locally late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday...
A risk of strong to severe storms exists locally late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.(WSFA 12 News)

Be sure to be weather aware Tuesday afternoon through lunchtime Wednesday. Have ways to receive important weather information like watches and warnings. This includes the WSFA 12 News First Alert Weather app and a NOAA weather radio. Today is a great day to make sure you know where you will go in the event a warning is issued.

Let me make something clear about this event: It will likely not be a significant/widespread severe weather event in Central Alabama. Those off to the north and west of us have a much higher risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. The risk in this region isn’t zero, but it’s lower than what it is in Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana.

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