Weather Blog: Stormy, then much colder...

MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - HERE AND NOW: Monday evening is a warm, breezy affair for most of Alabama. A few isolated pockets of rain are falling in parts of the state, but many of us are simply dry and warm. Isolated showers will continue overnight, but there won't be any severe weather issues tonight or tomorrow morning.

WATCHING TOMORROW AFTERNOON: The first "wave" of storms isn't a slam dunk; in fact, our confidence in its development is low. But, we'll have to watch for the development of individual (not in a solid line) storms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. IF these storms develop, they could produce some gusty wind and/or isolated tornadoes. But, that's a big if. Relatively warm temperatures aloft could prohibit these storms from forming. We'll watch closely.

LINE OF STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT: We are much more confident in this part of the forecast. A line of storms will enter west Alabama tomorrow evening, then slowly move eastward across the state. Initially, there will be enough wind shear and instability for a slight risk of damaging storms, mainly west of I-65, tomorrow night. As the line moves eastward, the risk will gradually decrease. Still, this line will have to be watched on its trek across the state. With very high wind shear values, rotation is possible and a few isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Also, the line will slow down, meaning that heavy rain could produce isolated flooding by early Wednesday morning.

TL;DR VERSION: We could have a few strong storms tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in storm development is low. Then, tomorrow night, a line of storms will move across Alabama. Within these storms, damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes and localized flooding are possible. Storms could develop as early as 3pm Tuesday in the western counties and last as late as noon Wednesday in the eastern and southeastern counties.

PREPARE YOURSELF: This isn't a high-end risk; we have been through events much worse than this one will be, so there's no need to panic or worry. Simply be sure to have multiple, reliable ways of receiving weather warnings and plan where you'll go if you end up in a Tornado Warning. Take advantage of our free weather alerts - you can receive them by enabling push notifications within the WSFA Weather App OR by texting your county name to 41212.

COOLER, THEN MUCH COLDER? We trend cooler Wednesday and beyond; highs will drop back down into the 50s with lows in the 30s Thursday through the weekend. And, in the long range, there's growing evidence of a BIG shift to very cold weather around here by the middle/end of next week. Stay tuned!

Copyright 2016 WSFA 12 News. All rights reserved.