MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - It's been an interesting Thursday morning. A sharp temperature contrast featuring relatively cooler air north and warmer air south indicated our frontal boundary is still hanging around. Indeed, that stationary front has parked itself across south Alabama. This boundary will serve to ignite scattered showers and storms throughout the day. We've already had a potent cell that prompted a few Warnings in Monroe county earlier. It's possible a few more find their way here later today...
TODAY: Much of central Alabama is behind the front right now, so highs today will not be a warm as they've been. I'm calling for upper 70s to low 80s across central Alabama with 80s again across our southern counties. The stationary front will be the catalyst for additional storms, particularly into the afternoon across the southern third of Alabama. While the severe weather threat remains low, it's possible a few healthier cores could prompt Warnings across south Alabama. Hail would be the most likely culprit for the warning given instability values in place. Regardless, pockets of heavy rain and frequent lightning will be possible.
A Marginal risk for severe weather is in place south of a Greenville-Troy-Eufaula line. That risk is upgraded to Slight closer toward the Florida border.
The tricky part of the forecast is nailing down exactly where these clusters of storms setup. They'll hug the front...but there is some evidence that front will try to nudge northward as a warm front later today. That could spread rain into central Alabama late. For this reason, rain chances around the Montgomery area are low today but increase late and overnight.
Admittedly, this is the kind of day you'll see a lot of run-to-run variability in computer models as they try and resolve these smaller scale features. Don't get too caught up in one particular solution from Futureview. It's not likely to grasp things 100%.
SPRING BREAK: Anyone headed to the beach? Today isn't the best beach day with waves of rain and storms affecting much of the coast. The risk for rain continues Friday and Saturday before drier and cooler air settles in Sunday.
Seeing as how water temperatures are just north of "iceberg" status, I'm guessing there won't be more than a handful of brave souls in the water. But if you are...be sure to be aware of lightning in the area. Water is the last place you want to be.
7-DAY FORECAST: Rain isn't likely just at the beach...here too. We'll stay wet through Saturday before drying out and cooling off further Sunday.
The start of next week looks pleasant as temperatures gradually rebound.