MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - There aren't many occasions in April where the weather team gets to sit back and watch a full week tick on by without any major severe weather concerns. It is unusual indeed. But we're in the midst of a gorgeous stretch of days that will continue Tuesday. Now, our forecast isn't completely quiet. Our next cold front is slated to arrive Wednesday night. And there could be a few stronger storms to contend with. But in the big April scheme of things, this front should have more bark than bite...
TODAY: It's been a few days since I've seen a cloud. Any cloud. At all. Skies are completely clear once again this morning and you'll be hard pressed to pick out any white in that blue backdrop again today. Temperatures won't be quite as warm as yesterday, but still very pleasant. Expect highs into the middle 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Much of the first half of Wednesday should be partly sunny and rather nice. It's late in the day we'll be watching clouds building from the northwest as a cold front approaches. Models have sped up the arrival time of a line of rain/storms, now bringing the line into the Montgomery metro area around 10 p.m. to 11 p.m.
A quick glance at Futureview depicts a fairly narrow but robust line of rain/storms along the frontal boundary. Digging into the severe weather parameters, there are a few things that point toward severe weather. Overall shear values are more than sufficient. The trough appears to take on more of a negative tilt (favorable for severe weather) and overall lift along the boundary is enough to get storms going. However, surface dew points never really get into the ballpark that would support the instability necessary for more of a concern. As a result, instability values are rather low. The timing of the line is also well after dark, further limiting the available instability.
The SPC has places central Alabama under a Marginal risk for severe storms (roughly 7pm-1am) late Wednesday. I think that's fair...and should serve to cover a few cells becoming strong with even less perhaps flirting with severe level criteria. Damaging winds would me the main hazard. The tornado risk is extremely low from everything I'm seeing at the moment, but we always watch these April systems closely as they can be sneaky.
While the rain could be briefly heavy, brevity is on our side with this one. This look like a quick 1-2 hours of rain and then we're done, so totals in the quarter to half inch ballpark should suffice.
INTO THE WEEKEND: The front quickly sweeps on by and is gone by Thursday. Sunny skies and cooler air are expected to linger for a few days behind the front all the way into the weekend. Highs for Auburn's A-Day may never get out of the 60s, which is unseasonably cool for this time of year.