Weather Blog: Case of the Monday's- rain arrives late

Weather Blog: Case of the Monday's- rain arrives late

MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - After a beautiful weekend, we're waiting on our next round of rain and storms to arrive. Many of us are enjoying sunshine at this hour, but clouds and even a few light showers are already knocking on west Alabama's door. This storm system appears to be one that will be capable of dumping heavy rain across parts of the area, but the threat for severe weather appears minimal. Here's what we're thinking...

TODAY: Watching a few echos on radar this morning near Meridian Mississippi trying to scoot into west  Alabama. The leading edge of the cloud line has made it about as far east as Selma with generally clear skies hanging on east of there. Clouds will continue to increase as the day wears on with isolated showers possible at most any point mainly from afternoon on. That being said, showers will certainly be possible across west Alabama even this morning. Expect highs to climb into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees in a few spots.

Rain coverage will start to ramp up late today and into the overnight hours as a frontal boundary approaches. This will result in widespread rain through the night (good sleeping weather) with perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder possible. While many spots are expected to receive a general 1-2" of rain, there will likely be an axis of heavier totals. Initial thoughts of where that axis would setup favored areas just north of our viewing area. But the new NAM coming in this morning and our in-house model appears to hint at that heavier rain perhaps sliding southward into our part of the world. We'll have to keep an eye on trends as models will likely waffle, but know that it is possible we'll have pockets of heavier rain to contend with.

While the afternoon commute today shouldn't be much of an issue (just isolated rain), the morning commute Tuesday should be wetter.

The next question I'm sure many of you are wondering...will we see any severe weather? The ingredients through the overnight hours do NOT support severe thunderstorms. We could have a few embedded rumbles of thunder, but we don't anticipate much more than that at this time. It's April, so we'll no doubt keep an eye on trends. But I like what I'm seeing from that standpoint.

TUESDAY: Tuesday afternoon could be a more intriguing scenario for a few stronger storms. The cold front is expected to stall out somewhere across the viewing area. Ahead of that boundary, afternoon heating could provide the necessary instability to get stronger storms going across mainly the southern third of the state. That will bear watching.

The exact location of where that front decides to stall will be important in ironing out rain chances through the day. If you live in central Alabama, I'd anticipate a gradual decrease in rain coverage as we get into the afternoon. Doesn't mean we're completely dry, but we're trending that direction. Rain and storms could still hang tight across out southern counties. This assessment of rain chances is hinging heavily on that front doing what models currently expect it to do. If it hangs up, we may have to increase rain chances farther north.

Right now we think the bulk of the rain will be south of Montgomery Tuesday evening, hopefully giving us a solid few hours for baseball at Riverwalk for the Biscuits home opener. Entirely possible the front has completely cleared and we'll be 100% dry. But we'll maintain a 30% rain risk just in case the front slows down.

As the front stalls, additional ripples of energy will keep rain chances in the picture for much if not all of the week.

Rain clears by the weekend, giving us another solid Saturday/Sunday combo to enjoy!

Copyright 2016 WSFA 12 News. All rights reserved.