MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - After yet another hot and somewhat stormy weekend, adults are heading back to work on this Monday and a bunch of kiddos are starting the new school year - yay! Even through summer is ending for some, it still feels a lot like the hot and muggy weather we have grown used to over the past few weeks. That could changes briefly as more rain and slightly cool temperatures are expected to impact Alabama soon...
We have been watching an area of low pressure just over the Big Bend area in Florida for a couple of days now; from this system a large area of deep tropical moisture over the southeast United States has formed, and some major rain is falling across the Gulf right now. Precipitable water values (a parameter which tells us how much moisture is in the troposphere) were over 2 inches in areas along and south of I-20 this morning. To put that into perspective, 1.75" PW values or greater is considered to be a very high moisture content in the atmosphere. Based on the position of the upper low that was previously mentioned, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of central Alabama by this afternoon.
The two primary concerns as this system parks itself over our area will be rainfall totals and flash flooding potential, especially the further south you live. While it will not rain all day everyday for the next week, rain will be likely each day for the majority of our viewing area. Models continue to be in good agreement regarding heavy rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast, but they are not so in-sync when it comes to how much rainfall is expected further inland. Some models have 5-day rainfall forecasts averaging rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across much of the area, but there has not been a lot of consistency from run to run. It's a tricky forecast, and we will keep an eye on it for sure.
Because of the potential chances of showers, afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler today... easterly flow around the low pressure will also help usher in some slightly cooler air, but it won't help much today. Highs for those who stay completely dry up back into the low 90s, but if you are lucky enough to see rain your temperatures will fluctuate throughout the afternoon. If you are looking for some kind of relief from the 90s, look no further than this week. Highs by Wednesday struggle to climb out of the 80s, and we stay there for several days. It won't be much, but any relief is better than no relief, right?
A large upper-level trough will be moving into the central US by Saturday, and with that it will allow for this low pressure to lift away from our area. Can't say the same about the tropical air mass... it hangs around and keeps rain chances will elevated still through the weekend.