Weather Blog: Quiet weekend, eyes still on next week

Weather Blog: Quiet weekend, eyes still on next week

MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - Would you believe parts of southeast Alabama found their way into the 60s this morning? A rare August treat for some as drier air has settled across much of the viewing area. That dry air will help keep rain chances at a minimum today and into the weekend. Beyond that, our attention shifts to more questions than answers with regard to the tropics...

TODAY: No problems getting the mercury into the middle 90s again this afternoon. With isolated storms favoring the northern half of Alabama, many of us won't have to dodge more than a 10 percent shot at raindrops.

FEVER: Partly cloudy to mainly clear skies will make for a warm but generally dry evening for Friday Night Fever games. It's still Summer, so you'll be sweating. But lightning shouldn't be much of an issue at all tonight.

THIS WEEKEND: A continuation of hot and mainly dry conditions is expected with daily highs in the middle 90s and very low rain chances. If you are beach-bound, you'll enjoy another very typical August weekend on the water. No impacts from anything tropical this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: We really aren't any closer to a definitive solution on the tropics for next week. Why is that? Because Invest 99-L had completely fallen apart yesterday. The low-level center was completely exposed, void of any convection. This is a sign of a system struggling immensely in a hostile environment. Without any development, models will continue to be very inconsistent on its future.

Interestingly enough, convection appears to be attempting to redevelop late this morning. What would essentially amount to a new "center" would need to develop, the first stage in what will be a slow development process. Wind shear appears to be slightly less right now, so it will be interesting to see what exactly 99-L is able to with that today. Conditions into the weekend are expected to improve only slightly, and it's questionable whether the near term environment will support organization. Possible, but certainly not guaranteed.

In the long term, whatever survives of 99-L is likely destined for the Gulf into early next week. Aggressive models have backed off some on intensification at that point, but it stands to reason the environment would be generally supportive of strengthening at that point. The bottom line is this: There are many hurdles 99-L must still jump before becoming something to worry about. An option on the table is this system NEVER gets it's act together. I think the odds of that are low, but it's an option. The next few days will be critically important in understanding what, if anything, this system can make of the atmosphere in front of it. Interests in Florida & the Gulf states should continue to keep tabs on updates, but nothing more at this point.

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