Weather Blog: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue

Published: Oct. 17, 2016 at 3:28 PM CDT
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MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - It's a quiet start to our new workweek; besides a few areas of patchy fog, many towns across the state woke up to dry and mild conditions. A lot of things are changing in our forecast as we head through the next couple of days... the way our week begins will be much different than the way it looks to end...

Monday: With mostly clear skies and southerly flow, temperatures this morning in the 60s will quickly rise as we head through the afternoon. Highs today will run well above average for the middle of October... seasonable temperatures for this time of year are usually run in the upper 70s; today, we are dealing with highs climbing into the upper 80s. Although that's a good 10° above normal, no record temperatures look to be in jeopardy of being broken.

More of the same for midweek: By tomorrow an upper ridge helps to reinforce the current dry and warm weather pattern. Mostly sunny skies will heat temperatures up into the upper 80s easily with a few spots flirting with 90° easily.

As southerly flow helps build our atmosphere's moisture back up, a rogue shower by Wednesday isn't completely out of the question. By now you know our state is in desperate need for some rain to help with our current drought conditions; many of us won't be dealing with a good chance of rain until Thursday... by then, a trough with begin to approach the Southeast, bringing with it a chance of rain to parts of central Alabama.

Late week cold front: We have seen some cold fronts move through the region recently, but not many have had the moisture necessary to produce rain. Now, with dewpoints rising ahead of our next front, odds are a few showers will likely pop up across the area. So what's the problem?

Well, if you would have asked 24 hours ago when our next *rain producing* cold front would arrive and how long it would stick around, computer models were all in pretty good agreement... now there is some difference of opinion. Some model guidance says this front is a quick move through the area with minimal impacts (lower rainfall amounts, smaller area of coverage, etc.) while some other models are having this boundary hang out a little bit longer (more moisture builds ahead of the front meaning better coverage and accumulation). Which one is correct right now is still up for debate, but have no fear: we will continue to fine tune the details as more data comes in.

As of this morning, I would tend to lean towards the more consistent computer models that keep this front moving through the area quickly. Timing looks to be later in the day Thursday with rain chances spilling over into the evening Thursday and day on Friday. Overall coverage is not overwhelming (20 to 30 percent) but it's a step in the right direction. Also, a step in the right direction is the cool area that follows: more seasonable temperatures will build in behind the front and they look to stick around through at least Sunday.

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