MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - After a wet weekend filled with beneficial rain, even more showers are likely again in time for our Monday. This time a few storms could impact the region as well.
Monday: We are currently experiencing a small lull in the shower activity early this morning. One batch of rain from the weekend may have left our area, but it is still wreaking havoc on some driving to work... a dense fog advisory has been issued for several of our counties across central Alabama this morning; this will remain in effect until 10 a.m.
After the fog dissipates, we are still dealing with overcast skies before our next batch of rain slides on in from the west. Unlike the first round of showers we dealt with this weekend, a few spots (especially the further south you are in Alabama) could see a few stronger storms as this system pushes on through the state.
Widespread showers are expected to re-develop by late morning across western portions of Alabama first, then the rain will gradually spread east/northward throughout the rest of the day as a warm front lifts through the area. Some elevated instability values in our atmosphere will allow for the possibility of a few lightning strikes across southern portions of the area early on, but the surface front itself will remain near the Gulf Coast with no surface-based convection expected during the day today.
Tonight - Tuesday Morning: Overnight (after sunset) through the beginning of our day on Tuesday (before sunrise) is the timeframe in which we are watching closely for the potential of some stronger storms. The main question regarding severe weather potential will be how far north the previously mentioned warm front (and the surface-based instability that resides south of the front) can lift throughout the night.
High-res models are not showing signs of this front lifting as far north as other global models are. We do not usually base our forecast solely off of one computer model, so their difference in opinion right now is something we will watch closely throughout the afternoon.
Threats: Confidence is higher, especially in our southern counties, that a low-end severe weather threat is possible tonight into early tomorrow morning. Impacts include gusty (and potentially damaging winds), heavy rain and the chance for an isolated spin-up tornado. We will continue to fine-tune the details.
Having multiple ways to stay informed is important since this could be an overnight event. Keep you WSFA weather app handy: we will send out push notifications as they are needed throughout the night. Also, make sure your weather radio has fresh batteries with the volume turned up; it's important you have a device/two that can wake you up due to the nocturnal nature of our weather threat.
Cold Snap Late Week: A fast moving short wave trough will pass to the north of Alabama Tuesday morning bringing shower/storm activity to an end by Tuesday afternoon. After several days of cloudy skies, there will likely a return of sunshine and some much colder air as well by Thursday/Friday. Strong cold air advection behind a frontal passage Thursday will rapidly bring temperatures down... the coldest air mass of the season will spread across the state Thursday night and it looks to last until the weekend. Highs on Friday will only be in the 40s while overnight lows dip down into the lower to middle 20s Friday and Saturday mornings. Temperatures look to rebound slightly in time for the weekend.