Weather Blog: Warm gives way to active

Weather Blog: Warm gives way to active

MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - I keep waiting for the inevitable turn to colder. You know it's coming. It has to. But it isn't coming this week. We're locked in with this extremely warm January pattern. That means another beautiful day today. But while our weather may not be turning colder, it will be turning wetter as several waves of storm systems target the Deep South. That means we'll be back in rain/storm mode before long...

TODAY: The record on the day in Montgomery is 79, a number that I think we end up just shy of. But still, it will be close. A mix of clouds and sunshine will make for great outdoor weather with many kids and parents off today.  A few showers will develop into the afternoon, favoring west Alabama. There won't be much and many miss out on rain entirely.

Future Radar
Future Radar

REST OF THE WEEK: What has been an active storm track to our west will finally start sliding eastward later this week. Initially, rain chances in Alabama will favor areas just north of our region. That means only isolated showers expected Tuesday into Wednesday. I'll consider late Thursday as our first "significant' shot of rain as a more robust wave develops. Rain and storms will increase in coverage into the overnight hours with what I envision as a marginal threat for strong/severe thunderstorms. It's not overwhelming, but we'll be keeping an eye on it. A brief break Friday gives way to another round of rain and storms developing Saturday and perhaps even into Sunday. That second wave could pose another shot at strong to severe storms, with the Storm Prediction Center already keeping tabs on our region for Saturday in their Day 6 outlook.

Master 7 Day Today_Eric
Master 7 Day Today_Eric

This is the kind of pattern that models can struggle with outside of a few days, but there has been some consensus with the GFS & European in recent runs. That adds credibility to the notion of active weather, but a lot still needs to be ironed out. With several waves of energy lining up, rainfall totals will need to be monitored. We need more rain, but don't necessarily want a ton in a short period of time. Several inches of rain appear possible by this time next week.

7Day Rainfall
7Day Rainfall

The progressive storm track does not feature a progression of different air masses. We'll remain well above average for the rest of the week with a good shot at daily highs above 70 through Friday.

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