MONTGOMERY, AL (WSFA) - HARVEY MOVES NORTH: Harvey remains over the waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, but it is *finally* beginning to move north. It will eventually make a third landfall along the TX/LA border, then move northwards towards Memphis. That puts Alabama on the eastern side of the circulation, which opens us up to a risk of isolated tornadoes and localized flooding.
FLOODING POSSIBLE: Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms will rotate through the state over the next few days. These bands of heavy rain will drop heavy rain, perhaps enough to create narrow "alleys" of localized flooding. The tricky part of the flooding forecast - there's no way to predict ahead of time where those narrow corridors of flooding will develop. So, if you live in a flood-prone spot, you just need to be ready to move to higher ground with short notice through Friday.
Even outside of the heaviest bands, intervals of wet weather are likely for all of the state. We expect a general 2-4" of rainfall Wednesday through Friday.
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK: The circulation from Harvey will enhance the wind shear over Alabama. Coupled with the very warm, muggy air in place near the surface, this could spawn a few isolated, brief tornadoes embedded in the bands of storms. Tropical tornadoes are typically very brief and in the EF-0/1 range; but they develop quickly, making it very difficult for us to give you much warning. So, stay weather alert through Friday and be ready to get to your "safe place" in your home without much notice.
AFTER FRIDAY? There's still considerable model disagreement on the weekend; the European model clears us out nicely, while the American model tries to keep leftover rain going through Saturday and Sunday. For now, we'll favor a "middle of the road" solution, but know that it's likely that the forecast for the weekend will change considerably over the next couple of days.